Analysis of Nepal's Anti-Corruption Protests: September 2025

Background

Nepal is experiencing unprecedented unrest following a government-imposed ban on 26 social media platforms, which was perceived as an attempt to suppress an anti-corruption movement. The protests, largely led by young people identifying as "Gen Z," escalated after the ban was lifted on September 8, 2025, but public anger over systemic corruption, nepotism, and economic inequality persisted. The resignation of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli on September 9, 2025, marked a significant turning point, but the situation has spiraled into violence, with significant damage to public and private property. Below is an analysis of the merits and demerits of the current situation, reflecting both the initial hope for reform and the concerns over escalating chaos.

Merits of the Protests

1. Resignation of Corrupt Politicians and Potential for New Leadership
   The resignation of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and several cabinet ministers, including Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak, Agriculture Minister Ramnath Adhikari, and Health Minister Pradip Paudel, signals a victory for the anti-corruption movement. The protests have created an opportunity for younger, reform-minded leaders like Kathmandu Mayor Balendra "Balen" Shah and Rabi Lamichhane, a former television host and founder of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), to emerge as potential successors. Their appeal among the youth could lead to a shift away from Nepal's entrenched political elite.

2. Potential for a Corruption-Free Nation
   The Gen Z-led protests have brought widespread attention to systemic corruption, nepotism, and economic inequality. The movement's demands for accountability and transparency could pave the way for systemic reforms, potentially leading to a governance model that prioritizes fairness and justice over favoritism. Protesters' slogans like "Shut down corruption, not social media" reflect a broader call for a corruption-free Nepal.

3. A Historic Revolution
   Dubbed the "Gen Z Revolution," this movement is being compared to the 2008 protests that led to the abolition of Nepal's monarchy. The scale and intensity of the protests, driven by young people across cities like Kathmandu, Pokhara, and Bharatpur, mark a significant moment in Nepal's history, potentially reshaping its political landscape.

Demerits of the Protests

1. Risk of Uncontrolled Theft and Lawlessness
   The escalation of protests has led to widespread chaos, with reports of looting and vandalism in Kathmandu and other cities. The lack of organized leadership and the power vacuum following Oli's resignation raise concerns about uncontrolled theft and lawlessness, particularly in urban areas where protests have been most intense.

2. Controversial Release of Rabi Lamichhane and Others
   The release of Rabi Lamichhane, who was detained in connection with a cooperative savings case, has sparked debate. While some view it as a victory for the protest movement, others fear it could set a precedent for the release of individuals accused of serious crimes, including murder and rape, amid the unrest. This could undermine the rule of law and public safety.

3. Massive Damage to Public and Private Property
   The protests have caused extensive damage to public infrastructure, including the Singha Durbar complex, which houses the prime minister’s office and other ministries, and the federal parliament building, both of which were set ablaze. Estimates suggest damages exceeding USD 1 billion, including critical infrastructure like data centers. Private properties of politicians, such as the residence of former Prime Minister Jhalanath Khanal, have also been targeted, with tragic consequences, including the death of Khanal’s wife, Rabi Laxmi Chitrakar, in a fire.

4. High Casualty Toll
   The protests have resulted in significant loss of life, with at least 19 confirmed deaths on September 8, 2025, and reports of additional casualties, including three policemen killed after surrendering. Unconfirmed reports suggest up to 32 deaths in Min Bhawan, marking this as the deadliest single-day protest in Nepal’s recent history. The use of lethal force by security forces has drawn condemnation from organizations like Amnesty International and the United Nations.

5. Potential Economic Impacts on Tourism and Share Market
   Nepal’s economy, heavily reliant on tourism and remittances, faces significant risks due to the unrest. The closure of Tribhuvan International Airport in Kathmandu, caused by smoke from nearby fires, has disrupted travel, with airlines like Air India and IndiGo canceling flights. This could deter tourists, a key source of revenue. Additionally, the political instability is likely to negatively affect Nepal’s share market, as investor confidence wanes amid the chaos.

6. Political Instability and Power Vacuum
   The resignation of Oli and other senior leaders has left Nepal in a state of political uncertainty, with no clear successor or interim governance structure in place. The absence of leadership, combined with the Nepalese army’s reluctance to manage law and order, could exacerbate the crisis, potentially leading to further violence or even calls for the restoration of the monarchy.

Additional Considerations

• Role of Young Leaders: Figures like Balen Shah, who has urged protesters to exercise restraint, and Rabi Lamichhane, whose release has galvanized some segments of the movement, represent a shift toward younger, non-traditional leadership. However, their ability to navigate the current crisis and restore order remains uncertain.

• International Response: India has issued a travel advisory and tightened security along the Indo-Nepal border, while airlines have suspended flights to Kathmandu. The international community, including Russia and China, is monitoring the situation, with potential implications for Nepal’s geopolitical relations.

• Long-Term Implications: While the protests have highlighted deep-seated issues, the lack of clear demands beyond anti-corruption rhetoric and the spontaneous nature of the movement could hinder its ability to achieve lasting change. The destruction of critical infrastructure, such as data centers, may also erase evidence needed to prosecute corrupt officials, complicating accountability efforts.

Conclusion

The Nepal protests of September 2025 represent a pivotal moment for the country, with the potential to usher in a new era of governance led by young, reform-minded leaders. However, the widespread destruction of public property, loss of life, and economic disruptions pose significant challenges. The movement’s success will depend on its ability to transition from protest to constructive dialogue, ensuring that the push for accountability does not devolve into further chaos. The international community and Nepal’s security forces will play a critical role in stabilizing the situation, while the youth must channel their energy into sustainable reforms to realize a corruption-free future.